20 de dezembro de 2019
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20 de dezembro de 2019

Teaser bets in the NFL


The study on this webpage relies on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 since that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were made on teaser cards. To save time, rather than assessing all 12 known types of parlay cards, I analyzed five different types. To obtain an understanding of how additional points affect the probability of winning, I created my Wizard Teaser Equation.

The reader must assume there’s some margin of error on any statistic about the likelihood of winning and anticipated return anywhere on this page. In the conclusion of the day, sports have been ultimately played by human beings, not figures, so always take some predictions of future outcome, based on past results, with a grain of salt.

Off the Board Teasers
“Off the Board” (OTB) teasers are based on the current point spreads off the betting board in the time of their wager. No card is filled out. Instead, the bettor tells the author the amount of legs in the teaser, number of further points on each leg, the bet amounts he wants to parlay, and the amount of the bet. By way of example, the bettor might state,”Three-team, 6-point NFL teaser on 213, 218 and 224 for $100.”

The bettor may opt to get 6, 6.5 or 7 additional points on each leg of the teaser. Obviously, the more points the bettor requires, the less he stands to win. Winning odds vary from location to place, so please refer to my cover tables for whom pays the best odds. However, for the idle readers out there, Jerry’s Nugget has the best OTB teaser chances for the number of points and legs.

Following is my personal evaluation of 6-point, 6.5-point, and 7-point teasers.

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